Creating Accurate Forecasts When Your Demand History Includes Outliers

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Preparing forecasts using data that contain one or more unusually large or small demand periods can be challenging. Depending on your forecasting approach, these “outliers” can have a significant impact on your forecasts. This article surveys three different approaches to forecasting data containing unusual demand periods, discusses the pros and cons of each and recommends when it is best to use each approach.

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Event Models & Using the New Event Manager in Forecast Pro

tipsandtricksForecast Pro’s Expert Selection system can generate thousands of forecasts automatically; however, the automatic forecasting approach can fall short if the historical data do not represent a typical demand pattern for a given item because of certain events.  For example, an unexpected large order may inflate the forecast for the following year, or a stockout may skew the forecast in the other direction. Similarly, promotional activity may occur at different times year-over-year. In this edition of Tips and Tricks, we’ll show you how to build Event Models in Forecast Pro to account for the impact of events, and introduce you to the new Event Manager in Forecast Pro TRAC Version 3.1 and Forecast Pro Unlimited Version 8.1.

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Introducing New Releases of Forecast Pro TRAC & Unlimited

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We are pleased to announce new releases of Forecast Pro TRAC and Forecast Pro Unlimited. For more information about the new features included in each of these products, see the relevant section below.

Forecast Pro TRAC v3.1

A key feature in Forecast Pro TRAC v3.1 is the new Event Manager. This on-screen facility allows you to easily define events, create descriptive event labels and assign events to the items you are forecasting. Continue reading

The New Forecast Pro Event Manager in Action

Event Management ScreenshotIf you want to see the new Event Manager available in Forecast Pro TRAC v3.1 and Forecast Pro TRAC v8.1, then you will want to check out the recording of our recent Webinar about using events to improve your forecasting. The educational hour-long session explains how event models work, how and when they should be used, and how to build customized event models.

The examples in the session use Forecast Pro’s new Event Manager, providing a first look at this new feature. To jump straight to this section of the Webinar, start watching at 19:07.

How to Improve Your Forecasts Using Events


Watch the recording of our educational one-hour Webinar. 

You will learn:

  • How event models work
  • How and when event models should be used
  • How to build customized event variables to meet your needs
  • Best practices for applying event models